111 forecasters

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

35%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 1, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 21, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2025

POTUS Predictions

Full-Term Phase

Artificial Intelligence

Scott Wiener on his fight to make Big Tech disclose AI’s dangers

TechCrunch•Sep 24, 2025

A ‘global call for AI red lines’ sounds the alarm about the lack of international AI policy

Verge•Sep 23, 2025

Nobel Prize winners call for binding international 'red lines' on AI

CNBC•Sep 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?