28
159 forecasters
Will a new package of sanctions by the US against Russia be officially announced before September 2025?
ResolvedNo
Senate defers to Trump for sanctions decision
Increases Likelihood
Trump shortens ultimatum impacting urgency
Increases Likelihood
House and Senate open readiness this month - before recess
Increases Likelihood
Russia's defiance could speed up sanctions
Increases Likelihood
Precedent (Iran) for Trumps ultimatums being unpredictable
Increases Likelihood
New sanctions more likely if June talks stall
Increases Likelihood
Russian peace concessions unlikely with China's backing
Increases Likelihood
Trump's unpredictability influences decision timing
Decreases Likelihood
Possible (nuclear) war risk if sanctions and support escalate too much
Decreases Likelihood