Confirmed COVID-19 infections before 2021:

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Question

The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing global outbreak of coronavirus disease. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China. As of 10 March 2020, 115 countries and territories have been affected, with major outbreaks in central China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran.

Some people suspect that the discrepancy between confirmed cases and actual infections is and will be very big due to impossibility of testing everybody. Predictions on Metaculus also seem to have high variability depending on whether the resolution will be based on the number of confirmed cases or scientific estimates of actual number of infections. There is also a lot of confusion relating to estimates of case fatality rate vs. infection fatality rate (see comments).

This questions aims to allow us to estimate this difference.

The question asks how many confirmed cases (not just estimated!) of COVID-19 will be reported before 2021?

Resolution criteria: The question will resolve based on the number of confirmed and reported cases before 2021 by WHO. Preferably based on the last Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation report for the year 2020. Specifically the number reported in the section "Situation in numbers", total cases, globally confirmed.

The resolution may be based on some other source if this specific number will not be available in this exact form. For the number to count, this question requires the number to be:

  1. reported by WHO
  2. specifically refer to the total number of confirmed cases globally

Please note, that WHO could adjust their reporting methodology if the most impacted countries decided to change their counting methodology, as they did with China. This question relies on expertise and authority of WHO to make sure that confirmed cases are actually confirmed. If WHO claims that cases are confirmed this question will accept that.

This question will resolve ambiguous if the total number of confirmed cases globally as reported by WHO will not be available.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site