Question

Will the third estimate of Q1 2025 annualized real GDP growth show an increase?

Resolved:No

79 comments79

Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction

30%

(15% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

1.5

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jun 5, 2025

Closes:

Jun 5, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 28, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2025 Leaderboard

Map Shows Which State Economies Are Growing—and Shrinking—in 2025

Newsweek•Jun 28, 2025

U.S. economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

PBS NewsHour•Jun 26, 2025

GDP data shows U.S. economy shrank more than previously thought in early 2025

CBS•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

1.75

What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters?

1.52

What will be the annualized percent real GDP growth rate in the United States from 2026 to 2028?

2.57

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jun 5, 2025

Closes:

Jun 5, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 28, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 5, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

2025 Leaderboard

Map Shows Which State Economies Are Growing—and Shrinking—in 2025

Newsweek•Jun 28, 2025

U.S. economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

PBS NewsHour•Jun 26, 2025

GDP data shows U.S. economy shrank more than previously thought in early 2025

CBS•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years?

1.75

What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters?

1.52

What will be the annualized percent real GDP growth rate in the United States from 2026 to 2028?

2.57