Question
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
Total Forecasters27
Community Prediction
04 Jul 2027
(14 Oct 2026 - 21 Feb 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 14 Oct 2026 | — |
| median | 04 Jul 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 21 Feb 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >31 Dec 2029 | 8.7% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch