Question
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction
31 Mar 2027
(04 Sep 2026 - 22 Oct 2027)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 04 Sep 2026 | — |
| median | 31 Mar 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 22 Oct 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >31 Dec 2029 | 0.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029
Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2029