4 comments
118 forecasters
What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?
Current estimate
24.7%
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2028
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
What will be the total AI compute capacity on January 1, 2028?
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
64.8M H100 Equivalents
(33.5M - 108M)
3 forecasters
What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?
64%
(56.3 - 72.8)
64%
(56.3 - 72.8)
112 forecasters
Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?
55% chance
123