Question

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

249

187 comments187

Total Forecasters2541

Community Prediction

95%

(83% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Dec 1, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2016

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Technology

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

31%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030