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Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2016
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 3, 2016
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
81
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
75% chance
92
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
May 2031
(28 Oct 2026 - Jun 2041)
May 2031
(28 Oct 2026 - Jun 2041)
182 forecasters