188 comments
2.7k forecasters
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
96%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 1, 2016
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 3, 2016
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
91% chance
79
Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?
69% chance
134
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters