Question

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

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Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction

31%

(25% - 50%)

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50%

community: 31%

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 31, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Artificial Intelligence

Sam Altman says he was largely right in predicting how quickly AI would develop — but not how people would react

Business Insider•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030