Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

118 forecasters

1

118 forecasters

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

12 comments175 forecasters

AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?

2 comments79 forecasters

By 2035, will NIH, ERC, NSF, or Horizon require AI use reporting in grants?

188 comments3k forecasters

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

2 comments20 forecasters

drop in AI workers by 2027

3 comments31 forecasters

Rob Long Says AI Conscious By 2030?

7 comments113 forecasters

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

0 comments64 forecasters

When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?

Current estimate

14 comments62 forecasters

AI resolving questions on Metaculus