4 comments
18 forecasters
Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?
2%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 2% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 4, 2025
Closes:Jul 13, 2025
Resolved:Jul 14, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 5, 2025
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Before June 2027, will a top-level French official publicly state that France will adopt a Sixth Republic?
7% chance
18
Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?
15% chance
143
When will France transition to a Sixth Republic?
May 2036
(Dec 2031 - Jun 2042)
May 2036
(Dec 2031 - Jun 2042)
10 forecasters