129 forecasters

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch