5 comments
144 forecasters
Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?
0.6%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jun 30, 2025
Closes:Sep 1, 2025
Resolved:Sep 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 7, 2025
By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?
78.5% chance
2
By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?
What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?
51.5%
(44.6 - 56.7)
51.5%
(44.6 - 56.7)
13 forecasters