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Question

Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?

5
1 comment1
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction

Make a Prediction

50%
Authors:
ADQ
Opened:Jun 30, 2025
Closes:Sep 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 1, 2025
Metaculus Cup
Geopolitics
CNBC logo
How China could shut down auto factories around the world
CNBC•Jun 28, 2025
Democracy Now logo
U.S. and China Agree to “Framework” for Trade Deal
Democracy Now•Jun 27, 2025
China Confirms Trade Framework With U.S. to Lift Export Controls - The deal involves loosening exports of rare earths to the United States and the lifting of some restrictions on U.S. goods to China, Chinas Ministry of Commerce said. via @nytimes:
•Jun 27, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

49.3

Will less than 75% of European Union imports of rare earth magnets originate in China in 2030?

30%

Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?

1.3%
Authors:
ADQ
Opened:Jun 30, 2025
Closes:Sep 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 1, 2025
Metaculus Cup
Geopolitics
CNBC logo
How China could shut down auto factories around the world
CNBC•Jun 28, 2025
Democracy Now logo
U.S. and China Agree to “Framework” for Trade Deal
Democracy Now•Jun 27, 2025
China Confirms Trade Framework With U.S. to Lift Export Controls - The deal involves loosening exports of rare earths to the United States and the lifting of some restrictions on U.S. goods to China, Chinas Ministry of Commerce said. via @nytimes:
•Jun 27, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

49.3

Will less than 75% of European Union imports of rare earth magnets originate in China in 2030?

30%

Will a federal investigation be launched over alleged insider trading relating to Trump's tariff announcements, before September 2025?

1.3%
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