23
157 forecasters
Will contracts between SpaceX and the US be cancelled before September 2025 totalling at least $1 billion?
ResolvedNo
Helium-3 crucial for fusion, US energy interests
Decreases Likelihood
US relies on SpaceX, risk to punish too high
Decreases Likelihood
SpaceX respected by Trump, unlikely target
Decreases Likelihood
Musk's goals may outweigh political conflicts
Decreases Likelihood
Musk's exit could prompt SpaceX-China collaboration
Decreases Likelihood
Trump doesn't like EVs, could target Tesla
Increases Likelihood