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145 forecasters

5

145 forecasters

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?

ResolvedNo

Uganda's resistance to releasing opposition figures

Decreases Likelihood

Besigye's health concerns may influence his bail chance

Increases Likelihood

Museveni's new law allows military trials for civilians

Decreases Likelihood

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3 comments30 forecasters

Will Bukele rule for life?

6 comments130 forecasters

Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?

3 comments20 forecasters

Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?

1 comment30 forecasters

Will Erdoğan remain President of Turkey until the next elections?

3 comments67 forecasters

Will Trump release the Epstein files?

0 comments30 forecasters

Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by September 1, 2026?

3 comments30 forecasters

Kim Jong Un No Longer Leads DPRK

Current estimate

0 comments7 forecasters

Will Haiti hold the 1st round of its presidential election before Sept 1, 2026?