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131 forecasters

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%chance
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Authors:
ADQ
Opened:Jun 11, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2028
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 15, 2025
AI 2027
Economy & Business
Law
Politics
Artificial Intelligence
TechCrunch logo
DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app
TechCrunch•Sep 30, 2025
NBC logo
U.S. rejects international AI oversight at U.N. General Assembly
NBC•Sep 27, 2025
Business Insider logo
Sam Altman predicts AI will surpass human intelligence by 2030
Business Insider•Sep 26, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

10% chance
128

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

36% chance
134

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

35% chance
111
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