Question

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

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Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction

10%

(8% - 15%)

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50%

community: 10%

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

The ‘OpenAI Files’ push for oversight in the race to AGI

TechCrunch•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle

TechCrunch•Jun 22, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

The ‘OpenAI Files’ push for oversight in the race to AGI

TechCrunch•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%