Question

Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?

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Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction

12%

(6% - 25%)

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50%

community: 12%

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Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

The U.S. government wants to go ‘all in’ on AI. There are big risks

•Aug 7, 2025

OpenAI Announces Massive US Government Partnership

Wired•Aug 6, 2025

Inside the US Government's Unpublished Report on AI Safety

Wired•Aug 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

34%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jun 11, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2027

AI 2027

Law

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

The U.S. government wants to go ‘all in’ on AI. There are big risks

•Aug 7, 2025

OpenAI Announces Massive US Government Partnership

Wired•Aug 6, 2025

Inside the US Government's Unpublished Report on AI Safety

Wired•Aug 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%

Will the US government mandate security clearance from the employees that lead the research and development of the top models at OpenAI, Deepmind, or Anthropic before 2028?

40%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

34%