Question
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction
19 Jun 2027
(18 Sep 2026 - 11 Sep 2028)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 18 Sep 2026 | — |
| median | 19 Jun 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 11 Sep 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 10.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2030
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2030
