Question
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction
06 Jul 2027
(08 Aug 2026 - 16 Nov 2028)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 08 Aug 2026 | — |
| median | 06 Jul 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 16 Nov 2028 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2030 | 10.1% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2030
Authors:
Opened:Jun 12, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2030
