Question

Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?

Resolved:Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

94%

(90% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 94%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.9

Community Peer Score

0.2

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 12, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Resolves:

Aug 3, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

The maps and numbers you need to know after US intervene in Iran-Israel conflict

Independent•Jun 24, 2025

Israel-Iran war stretches into a second week without diplomatic breakthrough

Associated Press•Jun 21, 2025

A militarily degraded Iran may turn to asymmetrical warfare – raising risk of proxy and cyber attacks

The Conversation•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

0.4%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 12, 2025

Closes:

Aug 1, 2025

Resolves:

Aug 3, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2025

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

The maps and numbers you need to know after US intervene in Iran-Israel conflict

Independent•Jun 24, 2025

Israel-Iran war stretches into a second week without diplomatic breakthrough

Associated Press•Jun 21, 2025

A militarily degraded Iran may turn to asymmetrical warfare – raising risk of proxy and cyber attacks

The Conversation•Jun 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

90%

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

40%

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

0.4%