Question

[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

90%

(80% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

8.0

Authors:

Perspectus

Opened:

Jun 13, 2025

Closes:

Jun 15, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 16, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2025

Politics

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How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?

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Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

14.2%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%

Authors:

Perspectus

Opened:

Jun 13, 2025

Closes:

Jun 15, 2025

Resolves:

Jun 16, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 15, 2025

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

What is the 3.5% protest rule and what does it mean for the US?

Guardian•Jul 17, 2025

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How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?

2.83

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

14.2%

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

52%