Question

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?

Resolved:Yes

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction

89%

(83% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

1.3

Community Peer Score

0.2

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jun 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2026

Iran-Israel Conflict

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

‘Fordow is gone’: Why this secret nuclear plant in Iran was Trump’s top target

•Jun 22, 2025

What is Iran’s Fordow nuclear site and why did Israel want a US strike?

Guardian•Jun 22, 2025

Israel-Iran conflict: If Donald Trump backs out of launching strike, will Israel use nukes to destroy Iran's Fordow facility?

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

0.4%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

3.8%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Jun 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 1, 2026

Iran-Israel Conflict

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

‘Fordow is gone’: Why this secret nuclear plant in Iran was Trump’s top target

•Jun 22, 2025

What is Iran’s Fordow nuclear site and why did Israel want a US strike?

Guardian•Jun 22, 2025

Israel-Iran conflict: If Donald Trump backs out of launching strike, will Israel use nukes to destroy Iran's Fordow facility?

•Jun 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

0.4%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

3.8%

Will the United States and Iran sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029?

50%