Question

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Resolved:No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters120

Community Prediction

1.8%

(0.5% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

10.6

Community Baseline Score

84.2

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 23, 2025

Closes:

Aug 11, 2025

Resolves:

Aug 30, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 25, 2025

Metaculus Cup

Geopolitics

2025 Leaderboard

DR Congo, M23 rebels resume talks in Qatar after renewed violence in east

Al Jazeera•Aug 26, 2025

Massacres in eastern Congo cast doubt on U.S. mediated peace deal

NPR Online News•Aug 21, 2025

Congo’s draft peace deal with M23 seeks to return government control to rebel-held areas

Associated Press•Aug 20, 2025

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