134 forecasters

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

95%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jun 20, 2025

Closes:

Nov 4, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Nov 5, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 20, 2025

Current Events⚡

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

Major US City Likely To Be Stuck With Socialist Mayor, Even If Most Voters Reject Him

Daily Caller•Oct 2, 2025

Zohran Mamdani Hits Back at Trump’s Federal Funding Threat

Newsweek•Sep 30, 2025

Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo escalate their attacks after Eric Adams exits NYC mayoral race

NBC•Sep 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch