Question

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters180

Community Prediction

0.7%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.7%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

39.9

Community Baseline Score

61.1

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 26, 2025

Closes:

Sep 1, 2025

Resolves:

Sep 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2025

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Iran Nuclear Weapons Update: New Uranium Stockpiles Recorded

Newsweek•Sep 3, 2025

Iran increased stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium before Israeli attack, UN agency says

Associated Press•Sep 3, 2025

Satellite Photos Show Activity at Iran Nuclear Site After US Bombing

Newsweek•Sep 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 26, 2025

Closes:

Sep 1, 2025

Resolves:

Sep 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2025

Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

Iran Nuclear Weapons Update: New Uranium Stockpiles Recorded

Newsweek•Sep 3, 2025

Iran increased stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium before Israeli attack, UN agency says

Associated Press•Sep 3, 2025

Satellite Photos Show Activity at Iran Nuclear Site After US Bombing

Newsweek•Sep 3, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

5.5%

Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?

2.5%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

2.5%