Question

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

5 comments5

58 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 55

Gary Marcus win

Nathan Young win

Other

Make a Prediction

Outcome		My Prediction		Me
Gary Marcus win	85%

Nathan Young win	13%

Other	2%

Total: ?

(? remaining)

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 25, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2026

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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jun 25, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2027

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2026

Technology

Tensor wants to be the first company to sell you a ‘robocar’ — but who are they?

Verge•Aug 13, 2025

Tesla’s Stock's Next Surge: 4 Catalysts To Watch

Forbes•Aug 12, 2025

Tesla Robotaxi Secures Texas Permit for Ridehailing Service

Business Insider•Aug 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

60%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

85%