7 forecasters

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

31%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 18, 2025

Closes:

Jul 9, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 22, 2025

Why should you be Labour’s next deputy leader? Guardian readers quiz the candidates

Guardian•Oct 11, 2025

The migrants laughing at French efforts to stop them reaching Dover: At least 70 make it on to UK-bound boat after running rings around hapless police

Daily Mail•Oct 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch