Question

Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction

47%

(38% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 47%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

pashka24

Opened:

Jul 18, 2025

Closes:

Jul 9, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 9, 2029

Verity

Economy & Business

GDP growth proves the Bank of England’s mistakes

Spectator (UK)•Aug 15, 2025

So the economy isn’t shrinking… but when will we feel any benefit, chancellor?

Independent•Aug 14, 2025

UK growth slows in second quarter but comes in higher than expected

Associated Press•Aug 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest?

2273

Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?

17%

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

31%

Authors:

pashka24

Opened:

Jul 18, 2025

Closes:

Jul 9, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 9, 2029

Verity

Economy & Business

GDP growth proves the Bank of England’s mistakes

Spectator (UK)•Aug 15, 2025

So the economy isn’t shrinking… but when will we feel any benefit, chancellor?

Independent•Aug 14, 2025

UK growth slows in second quarter but comes in higher than expected

Associated Press•Aug 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest?

2273

Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?

17%

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

31%