105 comments
173 forecasters
Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?
15%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 22, 2020
Closes:Nov 15, 2020
Resolved:Mar 15, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 23, 2020
Will marijuana be legal for recreational use in a supermajority of these strongly Republican US states before 2041?
90% chance
90
Will any U.S. state experience a permanent population decline of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
5% chance
22
Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?
2% chance
140