1 comment
19 forecasters
Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?
0.1%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 30, 2025
Closes:Jun 30, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jun 30, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 4, 2025
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
5% chance
126
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
35% chance
104
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
72% chance
64