Question
How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?
Total Forecasters79
Community Prediction
4 metro areas
(2 metro areas - 6 metro areas)
Make a Prediction
PMF
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 2 | — |
| median | 4 | — |
| upper 75% | 6 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10 | 5.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 4, 2025
Closes:Nov 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Nov 4, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 7, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jul 4, 2025
Closes:Nov 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Nov 4, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 7, 2025
