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Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?
A key observable (and important effect) of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.
The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combination of satellite data and can be seen here as an image and here as a function of time. (A second interactive chart is here.)
Arctic sea ice shrank to its smallest recorded extent in September of 2012. Thankfully, 2016 ice sheet coverage did not shrink to an area smaller than that of 2012. See here for the previous Metaculus question where we asked about the possibility for 2016 to reach record low).
Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2017?
The resolution will be positive if the 2017 curve dips below the lowest point on the 2012 curve at the ADS website.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.