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Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?

A key observable (and important effect) of global climate change is the extent of the Arctic ice sheet, which varies seasonally but also has a significant downward secular trend, presumably tied to global temperature increase.

The total extent of the sheet as a function of time is tracked in detail via a combination of satellite data and can be seen here as an image and here as a function of time. (A second interactive chart is here.)

Arctic sea ice shrank to its smallest recorded extent in September of 2012. Thankfully, 2016 ice sheet coverage did not shrink to an area smaller than that of 2012. See here for the previous Metaculus question where we asked about the possibility for 2016 to reach record low).

Will the extent of the Arctic ice sheet reach its lowest yet recorded value in 2017?

The resolution will be positive if the 2017 curve dips below the lowest point on the 2012 curve at the ADS website.


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