Question

[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?

Resolved:Yes

1 comment1

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

65%

(35% - 91%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

18.0

Community Baseline Score

42.8

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jul 4, 2025

Closes:

Jul 19, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 19, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 5, 2025

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?

Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?

18%

Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? (2028)

30%

Authors:

ADQ

Opened:

Jul 4, 2025

Closes:

Jul 19, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 19, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 5, 2025

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?

Will the National Party win more seats than the Liberal Party in an election for the Australian House of Representatives before 2035?

18%

Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? (2028)

30%