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45
comments
135
forecasters
Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?
Pokrovsk
result:
Yes
Myrnohrad
result:
No
Kostiantynivka
result:
No
1 other
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Top Key Factors
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Russia is advancing rapidly into Pokrovosk and Myrnohrad
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
4 votes
Significant gains into Pokrovsk
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Control of Rodynske could complete encirclement
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Kupyansk lines collapsing
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
Russian advances surrounding Myrnohrad
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
3 votes
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Pokrovsk
Myrnohrad
Kostiantynivka
Others (1)
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
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Authors:
skmmcj
Opened:
Jul 7, 2025
Closes:
Aug 26, 2025
Resolved:
Sep 1, 2025
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
Geopolitics
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News Match
Ukraine faces ‘exhausting battles’ against Russia in Zaporizhia, Donetsk
Al Jazeera
•
Nov 14, 2025
Russia makes gains in southern Ukraine as it expands front-line attacks
Associated Press
•
Nov 12, 2025
Zaporizhzhia: Russia Makes Gains in Southern Ukraine
Breitbart
•
Nov 13, 2025
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