Question
When will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC tokamak first demonstrate net power (Q > 1)?
Total Forecasters6
Community Prediction
Oct 2032
(14 May 2029 - >Jan 2033)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 14 May 2029 | — |
| median | Oct 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | >Jan 2033 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2033 | 48.0% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jul 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2032
Authors:
Opened:Jul 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2032
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2032