Question

Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?

Resolved:Yes

27 comments27

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction

74%

(60% - 81%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 74%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-26.6

Community Peer Score

5.9

Authors:

JaipalTuttle

Opened:

Mar 26, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2020

Resolves:

Oct 31, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2020

2020 Leaderboard

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%

Authors:

JaipalTuttle

Opened:

Mar 26, 2020

Closes:

Oct 31, 2020

Resolves:

Oct 31, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2020

2020 Leaderboard

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%