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    On what date will the daily number of COVID-19-related deaths in New York State first peak?

    Created by randallburns on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

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    Question

    COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 As of March 30, 2020 over 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease in the US.

    On what date will the daily number of COVID-19-related deaths in New York State first peak?

    This question resolves as the first date when the number of reported COVID-19-related deaths achieves its maximum number in the year 2020. By "first" is meant the day after which the number of deaths decreases more-or-less continuously at least for a while, i.e. is a local maximum of the curve.

    Specifically, some day is said to be the peak, if after applying a 5-day boxcar smoothing to the daily number of deaths, it is the first day when the number of deaths is strictly greater than that for the subsequent day.

    Acceptable sources are either New York State public health authorities or CDC reports -- whichever Metaculus admins deems more appropriate or accurate.

    Categories:
    Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19)

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