55 forecasters

Will Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams or Curtis Sliwa announce that they are dropping out of the 2025 NYC mayoral race before October 1, 2025?

20%chance

20%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 20% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 10, 2025

Closes:

Oct 1, 2025

Resolved:

Sep 28, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 12, 2025

Metaculus Learning Academy

🏆 2025 Leaderboard

2025 NYC Mayoral Race: Where the Candidates Stand on the Issues

New York Times•Oct 15, 2025

NYC Republican mayoral hopeful Sliwa: "I'm the only one standing between Zohran Mamdani ... and Zohran lite"

CBS•Oct 15, 2025

Michael Goodwin: Zohran Mamdani will finally have to answer for his sickening antisemitism at NYC mayoral debate

New York Post•Oct 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch