8 forecasters

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

50%chance

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Aug 15, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 19, 2025

Retired US supreme court justice fears ‘democracy is not guaranteed to survive’

Guardian•Oct 1, 2025

What Would It Really Take To Overturn Obergefell?

Daily Caller•Sep 29, 2025

Clarence Thomas says precedence might not determine cases on upcoming supreme court docket

Guardian•Sep 28, 2025

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