53 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

75%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 14, 2025

Closes:

Jan 15, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 15, 2025

Current Events⚡

Retired US supreme court justice fears ‘democracy is not guaranteed to survive’

Guardian•Oct 1, 2025

The Supreme Court is considering Ghislaine Maxwell’s petition. Here’s what to know.

MSNBC•Sep 29, 2025

What Would It Really Take To Overturn Obergefell?

Daily Caller•Sep 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch