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5 comments
39 forecasters

In which year will AI infrastructure account for 10% or more of global electricity consumption?

Not before 203181.2%
2029 or 203015.6%
2027 or 20283.1%
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
johnnycaffeine
Opened:Aug 19, 2025
Closes:Sep 30, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Nov 1, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 21, 2025
AI Pathways Tournament
The D/acc Pathway
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Artificial Intelligence
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Sora 2 and ChatGPT are consuming so much power that OpenAI just did another 10 gigawatt deal
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Scientists reveal the exact date when technology will surpass human intelligence - and there's not long to wait
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The billion-dollar infrastructure deals powering the AI boom
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of global electricity consumption will be attributed to data centers in 2029?

6.31%
(3.61 - 9.5)
6.31%
(3.61 - 9.5)
14 forecasters

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

423k TWh
(243k - 983k)
423k TWh
(243k - 983k)
28 forecasters

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9% chance
39
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