10 comments
34 forecasters
What percentage of Taiwan Semiconductor's employees will be located outside of Taiwan or China at the end of 2029?
Current estimate
22.4%
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 19, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Apr 20, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 21, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
70% chance
56
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
33% chance
48