1 comment
50 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?
30%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 30% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 27, 2025
Closes:Aug 27, 2025
Resolved:Aug 30, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 27, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes