47 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?

52%chance

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 52% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Aug 18, 2025

Closes:

Aug 18, 2025

Resolved:

Aug 30, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 18, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch