1 comment
48 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 32.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?'?
40%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 40% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 18, 2025
Closes:Aug 18, 2025
Resolved:Aug 30, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 18, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes