Question
Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters46
Community Prediction
30%
(28% - 40%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Spot Score
13.3
Community Spot Baseline Score
48.5
Authors:
Opened:Aug 18, 2025
Closes:Aug 18, 2025
Resolves:Aug 29, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 18, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
35%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
5%
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
70%
Authors:
Opened:Aug 18, 2025
Closes:Aug 18, 2025
Resolves:Aug 29, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 18, 2025
Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted
Include Bots:Yes
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
35%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
5%
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
70%