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16 forecasters
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Current estimate
09 Mar 2027
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 22, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 26, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
26 Sep 2027
(21 Oct 2026 - 27 Jan 2029)
26 Sep 2027
(21 Oct 2026 - 27 Jan 2029)
46 forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
21 forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
11 forecasters