7 comments
29 forecasters
Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?
63%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 29, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2028
Scheduled resolution:Dec 1, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 2, 2025
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How many U.S. metro areas with more than 500k people will have non-routine military or federalized National Guard deployments before Nov 3, 2026?
6 metro areas
(4 - 8)
6 metro areas
(4 - 8)
98 forecasters
Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?
20% chance
148
Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?
8% chance
40