92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for predictions.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 24, 2025

Closed:

Oct 24, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 24, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes