97 forecasters

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for predictions.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 7, 2025

Closed:

Oct 7, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 7, 2025

Community Prediction Aggregation Method:Unweighted

Include Bots:Yes